Scenarios for creative discussions about the future
Imagine a future society without supranational international agreements, a society in which we are still completely dependent on fossil energy. Then imagine a future society in which international political institutions are strong and where bioenergy is the dominant energy source. What would life be like in such societies, and how would they affect Swedish forests? Possible futures — this is what the Future Forests scenarios are about.
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The future has yet to happen, so studying it is difficult. But there are ways of considering the future. One way is to try to predict what is going to happen, as we do with weather forecasts. Another way is to look ahead, decide on a desirable goal, and then think about how to attain it. This method is used by most businesses and organisations when they work with visions.Future Forests has chosen a third approach, using possible scenarios. Consequently the ambition has not been to try to predict what is going to happen, nor even to establish what we want to happen. Instead, the scenario analyses have focused on possible futures and the researchers have asked what the consequences could be IF something happened. The work has been carried out within the Future Forests Center for Forest System Analysis and Synthesis (ForSA). The described scenarios are as follows:- Balancing Act. A stable world in which renewable energy sources and materials dominate. Swedish forest management is characterised by intensive forestry combined with other conservation measures, with the aim of achieving a balance between all the forest values.
- Carbon Sink. A less stable world where fossil energy sources and materials still dominate. Swedish forest management is characterised by low-intensity forestry with a focus on carbon storage.
- Carbon Substitution. A world with increasing tension between nations, dominance of renewable energy sources and materials, and with severe conflicts over land. Swedish forest management is characterised by intensive forestry with focus on bioenergy and biomaterials to replace fossil energy sources and materials.
- Free-for-all. A highly regionalised world with a high risk of conflicts, where fossil energy sources and materials still dominate and there are serious conflicts over land. Swedish forest management is characterised by intensive forestry with focus on wood, pulp and bioenergy.
The main purpose of Future Forests´ scenario analyses has been to promote interesting discussions in the programme about the future. The hope is that these will also serve as a source of inspiration for other creative discussions about the future in companies, public service agencies and other organisations with an interest in the Swedish forest.
